Monday, September 22, 2014
世界首富的投資組合
Thursday, August 21, 2014
股市与经济时有背离
证券新闻第一财经日报[微博] 冯郁青 张安哲2014-08-21 07:27
5年多前,道琼斯工业指数在6000多点。6年前,上证指数也在6000多点。现在道指已经突破17000点,而沪指却回到了2000多点,两者差距悬殊。但实际上在过去的5年中,美国经济并没有像股市表现得那样出色,GDP增长仅在2%左右;中国经济在这一段时期保持着8%左右的快速增长,而股市却一直低迷。那么股市和宏观经济并无必然联系?巴菲特在1999年《财富》杂志的一篇文章中指出,从1964年到1981年的17年间,美国GDP增长了373%;而道指在1964年12月31日是874.12点,17年后的同一天是875点,几乎持平。虽然时间久远,但这篇文章仍然充满了投资的智慧,一点也不过时。现在,让我们来看看巴菲特的解释。
这篇文章与美国投资者的长期收益相关。巴菲特一向坚持长期投资策略,但即便是以耐心著称的他也不觉得市场向前迈了一步。巴菲特认为,股票投资者都对股市抱有太高的期望。要想解释其中的原因,必须从股市整体出发。他明确表示,虽然会涉及到股市的整体水平,但不会预测大盘走势。对市场进行评估和预测市场发展之间没有一丁点联系。实际上很多时候市场会偏离价值,不过早晚也会向价值靠拢。
在之前的34年,我们看到了熊市和牛市惊人的对称,在1964到1981年第一个17年间道琼斯工业指数:1964年12月21日874.12点、1981年12月31日875.00点。一个非常矛盾的事实:在同样的17年间,美国国民生产总值(即美国国内所有交易的总和)几乎变成了原来的五倍,上升了约370%。在另一种衡量标准下,《财富》五百强公司(当然,公司组成不断变化)的销售总额变成了原先的六倍多。但是道琼斯工业指数几乎没动。
“投资”的定义很简单却常常被人忽略:投资就是现在投入本金以便将来拿回更多的钱(当然是刨去通货膨胀之后的“更多”)。要想理解上述原因,可着眼于影响投资价值变化的两个因素之一:利率。利率就像万有引力影响着物理世界一样操控着金融市场 。利率越高,向下的作用力越大。这是因为投资者要求的收益率直接与投资政府债券可以得到的无风险利率息息相关。所以,如果政府债券收益率上升,其他的投资产品的价值就会下降。反之,利率下降,其他投资的价格上升。其中的道理十分简单:今天投资者应该为明天得到的一块钱付多少钱,只能先参考无风险利率。
每当无风险利率变动一个基点,即0.01%,所有投资的现有价值都会变化。这种关系在债券市场表现得尤其明显,债券的价格几乎只与无风险利率有关。股票、房地产、农产品等资产的价格与其他一些重要因素有关,因而利率的作用没有那么明显,但是它仍像万有引力一样影响着资产价格。在1964到1981年间,政府债券利率大幅上涨,从1964年底的4%上升到1981年末的15%。利率的上升压制了资产价格,也就解释了经济增长而股票市场停滞的现象。
然而在20世纪80年代初,情况发生了转变。你可能还记得保罗·沃尔克刚当上美联储主席时是多么不受欢迎。但是他的英雄事迹在于大幅度削减通货膨胀率,引起利率水平大幅下降。假设你买了100万美元1981年11月16日发行的收益率14%的30年期美国国债并用每年的利息购入同样的债券,到1998年底,长期政府债券利率为5%,这时候你的回报是8181219美元,年化收益率13%还多。这可比历史上大多数17年股票带来的收益率都高,对于国债这样传统的证券来说,可谓一个巨大的成功。利率的下降将股市推高,你如果在1981年11月16日投入100万美元到道琼斯股指并且将股利全部再投资的话,到1998年12月31日,你将拥有19720112美元,年化收益率19%。这比历史上任何一段17年时期的收益率都要高。
影响投资价值变化的第二个原因是公司的税后利润。公司利润占国民生产总值的百分比在1929年达到顶峰,此后逐渐下降,在1982年触底,只有3.5%。当时的投资者们面临着两个坏消息:公司利润不景气与超高的利率。此时,投资者们又一次展现出了他们根深蒂固的恶习:以当前的情况预测今后的市场。就像行车时只看后视镜不看前方一样。他们对未来失去信心,觉得利率会保持在高位而公司利润也会停滞不前。即使国民生产总值接近原来的五倍,他们仍然将市场定位在17年前的水平。在1982年后的17年间,经济虽然没有像原先一样迅猛增长,国民生产总值变为了不到原先的三倍。但是利率开始下降,随着沃尔克政策的影响逐渐消退,公司利润也开始增长。
以上两个基本面因素的变化导致道琼斯工业指数在1981年起的17年间上涨了几乎十倍,从875点到9181点。此间,市场心理也在悄悄起着作用。当牛市来临,并且发展到不管采取什么样投资策略都赚钱时,更多的人便会涌向股市。这时候利率和公司收益便不再起作用,而是投资者不甘落后的心理在主导市场。
有了过去这17年的经验,很多投资者都对未来抱有美好的愿景。潘恩·韦伯公司和盖洛普公司的联合调查显示,拥有五年以下经验的投资新手预期未来十年的投资收益率达22.6%,而拥有20年以上经验的投资者则预期12.9%。巴菲特认为,从价值决定性因素来看,12.9%仍然是个太高的目标。如果投资者想要在未来17到20年间从市场上获取可观的回报,以下三点至少出现一个。
第一,利率必须达到更低的水平。如果政府债券利率从现在的6%下降到3%,仅凭利率的作用就能使投资价值翻番。如果你觉得利率水平会像日本之前那样跌到1%,那你就应该采取杠杆操作:投资股票期权。
第二,公司利润占国民生产总值百分比必须上升。有人曾经说纽约的律师比人口还多,可能也是这些人相信公司利润会比国民生产总值还大。公司利润增长速度不可能永远比GDP增长得快,这在数学上是讲不通的。在巴菲特看来,如果你觉得公司利润占GDP水平能维持在6%,就是非常乐观了。其中一个原因是竞争。另外一个是公共政策:如果公司投资者想分享越来越大的一块经济的蛋糕,其他群体吃到的就越来越少。这势必会引起政策上的问题,蛋糕的重新分配是不太可能发生的。在合理的假设下,GDP每年以5%速度增长,3%的实际增长速度加上2%的通货膨胀。这将是投资回报的一个限制因素——远远小于12%。如果投资回报维持在5%以下,那么资产价格在长期也不可能以高于5%的速度增长。
第三,你是一个乐观主义者,即使在其他投资者举步维艰的时期都相信自己是一个赢家。这个想法在信息革命之初极具诱惑力,你的经纪人会告诉你,只要买蓝筹股然后坐享其成就好了。巴菲特觉得有必要回顾一下历史,着眼于本世纪初两个改变世界的行业:汽车和航天业。首先是汽车行业:历史上曾经有过2000多家汽车制造商,你可能会说:“如果当时预见到汽车行业带来如此大的社会变革,就赚大发了!”那么20世纪90年代的行业格局究竟怎样呢?除了卡耐基公司还在坚持之外,美国的汽车制造商只剩下三家。没错,汽车行业是造成了巨大的商业变革,但却没有像投资者预期的那样带来巨大的收益,反而是亏损。其实有时候挑选行业的失败者比较容易,当汽车行业开始兴起,你仍然发现挑选出今后能够盈利的企业非常困难。但当时有个非常明显的选择:做空马匹。1900年美国有2100万匹马,然而到1998年就只有500万匹了。
另外一个带来社会变革的行业就是航空业,前景如此光明让投资者垂涎。巴菲特查到了1991年到1993年间约200家的飞机制造商,只有几家现如今还在营业。在过去20年间宣告破产的129家飞机制造商名单中,大陆航空荣登榜单两次。实际上,1992年的时候,美国的航空公司成立以来的利润为零。早知如此在1903年莱特兄弟试飞第一架飞机的时候就应该把它打下来,省得投资者以后亏钱。
还有其他一些很辉煌但没有给投资者带来盈利的行业,如电视、收音机制造业,这里就不一一举例了。我们能从中学到的教训是:投资的精髓不在于某个行业会给社会带来多大的变革,或是有多大的发展潜力,而在于单个公司是否能保持竞争优势。那些准入壁垒高的行业或者公司,才能在长期给投资者带来收益。
(第一财经(微博)日报)
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
A Summary of a Gift to My Children by Jim Rogers
Jim Rogers is a world traveler and legendary investor who made his fortune before he was forty. In A Gift to My Children, he offers his advice with confidence, paternal compassion, protectiveness, and love. Rogers reveals how to learn from his triumphs and mistakes in order to achieve a prosperous, well-lived life. He advises his children, and anyone seeking success in his or her chosen field, on things such as to trust their own judgment, focus on what they like, be persistent, see the world, and nothing is really new. Rogers gives examples of his own experiences, as a guide to life, adventure, and investing.
As the chapters begin, Rogers starts with telling you how to be yourself and rely on your own intelligence. He doesn’t believe in letting others do your thinking for you. Rogers emphasizes on not believing what you hear or read, no matter how many people believe it or how strongly they advocate it. He gives examples of business decisions he came across where he let others make decisions for him leading to failure. When he started thinking and deciding for himself, then he became successful. Rogers talks of his first business he started at the age of six where he collected empty bottles at baseball games to make a little cash because he was passionate about making money. He believes age is irrelevant when you are passionate about a goal. Rogers believes in dedicating yourself to what you feel passionate about. He goes on to tell about different jobs he worked as a teenager such as a convenient store owned by his Uncle. He always kept himself busy even when there weren’t customers in the store. Rogers felt there is always something you can be doing even if it’s dusting shelves.Rogers begins this book with a letter to his daughters. He informs them of who he is and what he does. The introduction letter tells of his life growing up, what he wanted most out of life, and how he accomplished his goals. Rogers states in the last sentence of his introduction that he wants to share with his daughters the things that are important for them to know so that they can too have happy and successful lives.
Traveling and seeing the world is a very important aspect of life to Rogers. He tells of how he has been around the world twice in 1990 and 1999. Rogers says you will discover more about yourself as you encounter and experience the world’s diversity. By doing this you will develop interests that you never entertained before and recognize your strengths and weaknesses. Rogers speaks highly of Mandarin language and China. He says China is gaining economic, political, and cultural strength, and will become an even more significant player internationally. He advises to pay attention to the major changes taking place in the world now. Everything changes so recognize and embrace it. Rogers tells us to keep an eye on the future and do not place a bet on that which is dying out. He says do not cling to anything that will eventually cease to exist because once something is gone, it is gone forever.
Rogers tells us not to stop when you are working toward your dream. He speaks of his advice but wants his daughters to know that he wants them to make their own decisions to accomplish dreams of their passion. He ends his books with telling his children to pass his advice on to children of their own someday.
1. Swim your own races; do not let others do your thinking for you. Rely on your own intelligence. In life there are times when you must make very important decisions and people will be ready to offer you advice if you as for it or not. You must always remember that the life you lead is yours and nobody else’s so decide for yourself what’s important to you and what you want before you turn to others.
2. Focus on what you like and dedicate yourself to what you feel passionate about. Try as many things as you can, then pursue the ones you enjoy most. The quickest way to success is to do what you like and give it your best. The least-happy people are those stuck in jobs they don’t love.
3. Live your life with a dream. When you begin something you may not always have a concrete picture or vision of the future but if you continue to be passionate and work hard at what you truly love to do, then you will eventually find that dream.
4. Most perceived wisdom is a misconception. Never blindly to accept what you hear or read, no matter how many people believe it or how strongly they advocate it. Always consider alternative interpretations.
5. Let the world be a part of your perspective. Learn philosophy, history, different languages, and learn to think. Don’t rely on books; go and see the world and be open to people who are different, whether home or abroad. You need a macroscopic view of the world.
6. It is the century of China. Make sure you learn Mandarin because it will be the next global language. People who can speak or read other languages have a great advantage over those who don’t. Pay attention to the major changes taking place in the world now. China is gaining economic, political, and cultural strength, and will become an even more significant player internationally. You must be aware of such developments, not only as an investor but as a world citizen.
7. Know thyself by understanding your weaknesses and acknowledging your mistakes. Look at yourself in the mirror and ask what drives you. Observe how you react to mistakes, so that you can respond more constructively the next time things go wrong.
8. Recognize change and embrace it because everything changes. Regardless of your perspective, refusing to accept the change is like swimming against the current of a thundering river. Try to resist the force, and you will not last very long.
9. Look to the future! People who can observe events as they unfold will certainly acquire wealth. If you are looking for success, be quick to start something new, something that no one else has tried. The more certain something is, the less likely it is to be profitable.
10. Lady luck smiles on those who continue their efforts. Once you take that first step toward your dream, put your full effort into it. If you want to succeed, you must never neglect it. Do not stop when you are working toward your dream.
1. Rely on your own intelligence.
- There are going to be moments in life when you must make very important decisions. You will find many people ready to offer you advice if you ask for it (and even if you don’t), but always remember that the life you lead is yours and nobody else’s.
- If people around you try to discourage you from taking a certain course of action, or ridicule your ideas, take that as a positive sign.
- Pursue your own desires and aspirations with courage and devotion. No one ever became a standout success by imitating others.
- You must avoid the trap of spending money willy-nilly simply because you can. Not only is this a road to financial ruin, it can cause you to forget what’s important in life.
2. Focus on What You Like
1. Age is irrelevant when you are passionate about a goal.
- When you find something that interests you, do not let your age hold you back. Be bold and just do it.
- Try as many things as you can, then pursue the one (or two, or three) about which you’re passionate.
3. Good Habits for Life and Investing
1. You need to be a self-starter.
2. Pay attention to details because it’s what separates success from failure.
- If you love and care about what you do, you will naturally want to do it the best you can. In investing, as in life, the small details often spell the difference between success and failure. So you must be attentive!
- When you begin something, you may not always have a concrete picture or vision of the future. But if you continue to be passionate and work hard at what you truly love to do, then you will eventually find that dream.
4. Common Sense? Not So Common
1. The most perceived wisdom is a misconception.
- As you travel the journey called life, you will come across conventional wisdom – accepted “truths” about how to behave, or what to study, or eat, or how to invest. You must remember never blindly to accept what you hear or read, no matter how many people believe it or how strongly they advocate it. Always consider alternative interpretations.
- You should read the newspaper every day, but approach it –and all the media, for that matter – with a healthy sense of skepticism.
5. Your Education, Part I: Let the World Be a Part of Your Perspective
1. Do not rely on books; go and see the world!
- Travel and see the world extensively. You will broaden your perspective many times over. If you really want to know yourself and your country, go see the world.
- Nowadays you can hardly pick up a business publication without seeing a reference to “BRICs,” a popular acronym in the world of investing. BRICs refers to a thesis currently popular with investors and politicians that Brazil, Russia, India, and China are destined to be the world’s leading economies by the year 2050, and therefore are rife with investment opportunities.
4. Keep an open mind and be a world citizen!
- Keeping an open mind includes never closing yourself to the possibility that people are different from what you first imagined.
6. Your Education, Part II: Learn Philosophy; Lear to “Think”
1. Philosophy will teach you how to think for yourself.
- You must learn to think at a profound level if you want to understand yourself and what’s important to you. You must know yourself if you want to accomplish anything in life. Studying philosophy can help do just this.
- To engage in philosophical thinking and to read books on philosophy are not the same thins. Reading helps develop our ability to think, but more effort is required to really sharpen the faculty.
- There are two methods of examination that are particularly useful in all walks of life, including investing. One is to draw conclusions from your observations, and the other is to proceed solely on the basis of logic.
- Most look for the bull and neglect the bear.
7. Your Education, Part III: Learn History!
- An interest in history, politics, and economics will help you see how occurrences in one country affect other nations as well, economically and in other ways.
- History is multifaceted. There are historical studies in economics and politics; there is history as examined and understood from the viewpoint of the United States, from a European perspective, and from the outlook of various Asian, African, and South American nations. You will learn that most history is written by victors so has a clear view. You really cannot say whose history is the more important.
- Study the history of your destinations before you take overseas trips. Without the historical context, you will not be able to fully understand much of what you observe.
- By cross-referencing historical events with long-term trends in the market, you will identify those developments that affect stock and commodity prices.
- History repeats itself in one way or another – or at least rhymes.
8. Your Education, Part IV: Learn Languages (and Make Sure That Mandarin Is One of Them!)
1. Mandarin will be the next global language.
- People who can speak or read other languages have a great advantage over those who don’t.
9. It Is the Century of China
1. Pay attention to the major changes taking place in the world now.
2. If you buy Chinese stocks, then you are buying the future of this country!
- The Chinese economy will continue to grow.
4. China equals commodities.
- The rise of China brings with it a rise in demand for commodities. China consumes steel, iron ore, and soy; it is the largest consumer of copper in the world and the second leading consumer of energy, including oil.
10. Know Thyself by Understanding Your Weaknesses and Acknowledging Your Mistakes
1. Always know who you are.
- Of course you need to be aware of the circumstances that surround you, you need to be knowledgeable about the world, you need to know history. But even more important, you need to know yourself. Look at yourself in the mirror and ask what drives you. If you can understand these things up front, you are more likely to be able to keep your head in a crisis. Also observe how you react to mistakes, so that you can respond more constructively the next time things go wrong.
- Even those who call themselves professionals are at times persuaded by the mob.
- To be a successful investor, you really need to understand psychology as well as history and philosophy.
- For the most part, it is the short-term trades that prices are driven by emotion. Mid-term and long-term investments are usually influenced more by the fundamentals.
11. Recognize Change and Embrace It
1. Everything changes, everything.
- To understand what is likely to happen in the future, you have to be able to understand current events and the changes presently under way in the world. All social environments transform over time.
3. Change can be a catalyst.
4. Dealing with change.
- Those who cannot adjust to change will be swept aside by it. Those who recognize change and react accordingly will benefit.
12. Look to the Future!
1. Everyone would be a millionaire if he could read a newspaper from the future.
2. Many countries will come apart.
- A hundred years from now, there will probably be anywhere between three hundred and four hundred sovereign nations on this earth, almost twice as many as there are now. Not one country in existence today has had the same borders and government for as long as two hundred years. The world will continue changing.
- Keep your eye on the future. Do not cling to anything that will eventually cease to exist. No matter how much time or energy or money you invest in it, once something is gone, it is gone forever.
- They’ll be able to demand more freedom. Professions, education, politics, everything will change.
- If you are looking for success, be quick to start something new, something that no one else has tried.
- Nothing in this world is absolutely certain. When many people are absolutely sure of something, you should be suspicious.
- Never act upon wishful thinking. Act without checking the facts, and chances are that you will be swept way along with the mob. Whenever you see people acting in the same way, it is time to investigate supply and demand objectively.
- Anytime that you think you’ve become a financial genius –when, in fact, you simply have had the good luck to turn a profit – it is time to sit back and do nothing for a while.
13. Lady Luck Smiles on Those Who Continue in Their Efforts
1. Do your homework, or you will end up with a glass bead.
- Once you take that first step toward your dream, put your full effort into it. Do your homework. If you want to succeed, you must never neglect it.
- If you let vanity and self-importance take over, you will lose all that you have achieved. And fast.
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
Investment Checklist for Stock Selection
October 28, 2010 | Jae Jun
Following on from the discussion of my first investing checklist, it’s time to reveal my new investment checklist.
Rather than a checklist of yes/no answers, the new checklist focuses on sets of core to do tasks.
I’ve also made it visual so that it makes it quicker and easier to follow. Rather than having a checklist of 100 items thrown at you, having a flow chart will make it easier to manage and keep track of what stage of the investing process you are on.
Investment Checklist Flowchart
Old School Value Investment Checklist Process
Core Investment Checklist
Do the Pre Work
Preliminary Background Reading
- Read previous thesis on Blogs / Investing Sites / Forums / Alerts
- Read news headlines
Valuation
Financial Statement Analysis
- Go through line by line
- Income statement + competitive advantage analysis
- Balance sheet + competitive advantage analysis
- Cash Flow statement + competitive advantage analysis
- Quality of Earnings (Inventory, tax, EPS)
- Competitor comparison
- Verify 15 value investing metrics and ratios
- Discounted Cash Flow/ Graham’s Value/ Earnings Power Value/ Multiples/ Sum of Parts
Dirty Work
- 2 annual reports
- 3 quarterly reports
- specific attention to footnotes at the end of the report
- managers discussion – consistency, candidness
- 2 letter to shareholders
- compare words, numbers to annual report numbers
- Latest proxy
- CEO compensation (% of sales)
- Greed factor (bonuses, reimbursements, planes, boats, family donations)
- Insider ownership
- Search CEO history, track record, personality
Emotional Check
- Write down how you are feeling
- Beware of
- wanting to just buy and study later
- hindsight bias
- overconfidence
- obligation to buy due to amount of research
- reluctance to accept differing opinions
- social proof bias
- If required, take a break and clear your mind. Get away from the excitement and noise.
Final Evaluation
- What can go wrong?
- What are the risks? How likely are the risks?
- How can you lose money?
- How would you categorise this investment?
- How attractive is this idea compared to the other holdings? (There can only be ONE best idea. Not 2 or 3.)
- What is the expected holding time frame?
- What should be the portfolio sizing?
- What price will you sell?
Investing Checklists will Save Your Portfolio
October 25, 2010 | Jae Jun
A checklist saves lives.
Before a planes takes off, the pilot must always go through a checklist to ensure that everything is rigorously checked.
And you certainly don’t want a nightmare crash in your portfolio.
I’ve had my checklist for about 2 years now and I felt it was time to go through it and improve upon it.
For long time readers and intrinsic value calculator users, you would have seen my initial checklist.
It went a little something like this.
Initial OSV Investing Checklist
There were two sections to the checklist. Qualitative and Quantitative.
1. Quantitative
2. Qualitative
By the end of these questions, I will have an idea of what number to give to categories in the spider graph such as below.
Problems with the Above Investing Checklist
1. Limited set of numbers and metrics
On the qualitative side, there isn’t much to explain. The criteria and cutoff points look pretty good. That’s only if you’re looking for the same type of company for every investment.
E.g. The cases couldn’t identify that a company with low margins with high inventory turnover could be even more effective than a high margin, low turnover company.
2. Too Narrow/Focused
By having setting specific standards, it was easy to forget other aspects like looking up CEO compensation, shares outstanding history etc.
3. Wording
The wording of the case also made it difficult because it just requires a yes or no. It made it far to easy to just answer based on my own guesses without performing the due research.
4. Not Universal
I found that the checklist was pretty lame against a company like KO or JNJ. I ended up skipping the entire checklist.
Checklist Improvement
So the question is, how do I improve on this?
I’ll get to that next time along with the updated checklist.
http://www.fwallstreet.com/article/1021-investing-checklists-will-save-your-portfolio