Friday, August 29, 2014

Malaise Is Ahead For Malaysia's Bubble Economy

10/15/2013

I recently wrote about how Indonesia’s economy has devolved into a classic credit and asset bubble-driven growth story, and its neighbor Malaysia is on the same path along with most other Southeast Asian economies, which are part of the overall emerging markets bubble that I have been warning about in the last couple of years.

The emerging markets bubble began in 2009 after China pursued an aggressive credit-driven infrastructure-based growth strategy to bolster their economy during the global financial crisis. China’s economy quickly rebounded as construction activity flourished, which drove a global raw materials boom that greatly benefited commodities exporting countries such as Australia and emerging markets. Emerging markets’ improving fortunes began to attract the attention of global investors who were seeking to diversify away from Western nations that were at the epicenter of the financial crisis.

Rock-bottom interest rates in the U.S., Europe, and Japan, combined with the Federal Reserve’s multi-trillion dollar quantitative easing programs encouraged a $4 trillion torrent of speculative “hot money” to flow into emerging market investments over the past four years. A global carry trade arose in which investors borrowed at low interest rates from the U.S. and Japan, invested the funds in high-yielding emerging market assets, and pocketed the interest rate differential or “spread.” Soaring demand for EM assets led to a bond bubble and ultra-low borrowing costs, which resulted in government-driven infrastructure booms, alarmingly fast credit growth, and property bubbles in numerous developing nations.

Surging capital inflows into Malaysia after the Crash of 2008 caused the ringgit currency to rise 25 percent against the U.S. dollar in just two years:




Foreign holdings of ringgit-denominated bonds hit an all time high:



Foreign direct investment (net inflows, current dollars) immediately recovered from its crisis-induced plunge to dramatically surge to new highs:




Source: IndexMundi.com

The Kuala Lumpur Composite stock index rose 120 percent, aided by growing interest from foreign investors:

Malaysia Is A Classic Credit Bubble Story

Malaysia’s $303 billion economy has been growing at an average 6 percent rate in recent years due in large part to a growing government and household credit bubble.

Since 2010, Malaysia’s public debt-to-GDP ratio has been hovering at all time highs of over 50 percent thanks to large fiscal deficits that were incurred when an aggressive stimulus package was launched to bolster the country’s economy during the Global Financial Crisis. After Sri Lanka, Malaysia now has the second highest public debt-to-GDP ratio among 13 emerging Asian countries according to a Bloomberg study. Malaysia’s high public debt burden led to a sovereign credit rating outlook downgrade by Fitch in July.

Malaysia’s government has been running a budget deficit since 1999:



Like their government, Malaysian households are also binging on debt, which has caused the county’s ratio of household debt to GDP to hit a record 83 percent – Southeast Asia’s highest household debt load – which is up from 70 percent in 2009, and up greatly from the 39 percent ratio at the start of the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997. Malaysian household debt has grown at around12 percent annually each year since 2008.

It’s no surprise to see an inflating household debt bubble when Malaysia’s bank lending rate is at record lows:




Ultra-low interest rates have caused Malaysia’s private sector loans to increase by over 80 percent since 2008:

Malaysia’s M3 money supply, a broad measure of total money and credit in the economy, shows a similar worrisome trend:

Malaysia’s high level of household debt led the country’s central bank, Bank Negara, to recently impose lending rules that cap maximum terms of personal loans to 10 years and mortgages to 35 years – a decrease from the common 45 year mortgages.

Datuk Paul Selva Raj, CEO of the Federation of Malaysian Consumers Associations (FOMCA), said 47 percent of young Malaysians are currently in “serious debt” (debt payments amount to 30 percent or more of their gross income), something that could catch up with them very quickly.

“Car purchases and credit card debts are among the main reasons for bankruptcy in Malaysia,” said Paul. “It’s the culture we live in. There’s a lot of emphasis on status and being ‘cool’ – but being cool costs money.”


Malaysia’s household credit bubble is helping to fuel a consumer spending boom:

Malaysian car registrations are up by 50 percent since 2008:


Malaysian corporate leverage, which includes corporate bonds and bank loans, is also rising at an alarming rate, reaching 95.8 percent of GDP in 2013 from 79.9 percent in 2007.

Malaysia Also Has A Property Bubble

Like most other countries that are part of the emerging markets bubble, Malaysia has a property bubble in addition to its credit bubble.

The charts below show the parabolic rise of overall Malaysian property prices:



Source: GlobalPropertyGuide.com

Accounting for nearly half of all household debt, soaring mortgage loan growth is a primary reason why Malaysia’s household debt is increasing at such a rapid rate.

Plans to build the tallest building in Southeast Asia, the 118-story Warisan Merdeka Tower, are a major Skyscraper Index red flag.

How Malaysia’s Bubble Economy Will Pop

While Malaysia has fared better than Indonesia, India and Brazil during this summer’s emerging markets rout, the country still has an extremely dangerous economic bubble that will pop when the overall emerging markets bubble pops in earnest. Malaysia’s bubble will most likely pop when China’s economic bubble pops and/or as global and local interest rates continue to rise, which are what caused the country’s credit and asset bubble in the first place. The resumption of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s QE taper plans may put pressure on Malaysia’s financial markets in the near future. Malaysia’s rapidly deteriorating current account surplus due to weaker exports is another worrisome development.

As I’ve been saying even before this summer’s EM panic, I expect the ultimate popping of the emerging markets bubble to cause another crisis that is similar to the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, and there is a strong chance that it will be even worse this time due to the fact that more countries are involved (Latin America, China, and Africa), and because the global economy is in a far weaker state now than it was during the heady days of the late-1990s.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/10/15/malaise-is-ahead-for-malaysias-bubble-economy/

Jackpot股的誘惑 - 買股票如買彩票

毕老林 2014年4月16日


4月15日,周二。南非「股王」Naspers掌舵人科斯貝克獨具慧眼,2001年斥資3200萬美元買入接近半家騰訊(700),十三年來一股未賣,當年的3200萬,今天已變成600億。許多人發夢都想成為第二個科斯貝克,於草創時期押注「一窮二白」的企業,若干年後迎來百倍千倍回報。


在芸芸蚊型公司中發掘下一家騰訊,固然有若大海撈針,但事實告訴大家,散戶渴望一朝發達,莫說十三年,一兩年恐怕也嫌長。此所以,生物科技股中十隻未必有一隻賺錢,投資者對這個板塊也顯得忽冷忽熱,惟生科股相對大市永遠「貴」得離譜。道理很簡單,買入IBM以至今天的騰訊,一年漲10倍近乎不可能。然而,押注一隻可能成功研發「癌症剋星」的小型生科股,莫說一年,一天漲10倍亦非全無機會。生科板塊難炒眾所周知,但願意為可望而不可即的夢想pay up者,任何時候皆大不乏人。對這類投資者而言,買股票跟買彩票實無兩樣。


買股票如買彩票


有投資網站做過研究,以市盈率、股價對銷售比率等指標衡量,美股中估值最昂貴的10%股票,多達四成來自3個產業,分別為藥物及生物科技、電腦硬件及器材,以及電腦軟件及服務。美國上市公司覆蓋多達24個主要行業,「超貴」股票卻分布於上述三個產業,足證此類「彩票股」於板塊上何等集中。科網和生科股近日跌個四腳朝天,現在正是探討「彩票股」的適當時候。


市民投注六合彩,無非憧憬一朝發達,買的是一個極之渺茫的可能性(possibility)。即使最不切實際的人,相信亦不可能天真到以為花上十元八塊,便能換來一個發生概率高的機會(a high probability of happening)。

慎防成手「蟹貨」

正如六合彩投注人深知中獎機會微乎其微一樣,買入「超貴」且集中於兩三個板塊股票的投資者,心裏想必十分清楚,這些公司只有極少數能成為下一隻騰訊、蘋果或Google。然而,他們隨即想到,騰訊、Google不也有過寂寂無聞,就如今天市場上那些「彩票股」的日子嗎?唔賭唔知時運高,who knows?

許多讀者相信都有像老畢那樣的經驗,每天收到自稱投資顧問的電郵推介,焦點雖不一而足,但皆對準三數概念,比如物聯網、頁岩革命、新能源,以至無人駕駛飛機,把這些廣為人知的發展包裝成冰山一角,着力促銷The Next Big Thing。說穿了,此等「專家」殊無新意,所謂The Next Big Thing,不過聲稱「發現」較Bakken和Eagle Ford加起來還要大的頁岩能源產區,又或無人駕駛飛機如何深入國民生活的每個層面,諸如此類。

長篇大論並不足夠,要說服看官大解慳囊,「專家」下一步是舉出若干實例,再登幾段真假難辨的「用戶謝辭」,力求傳達「唔訂走寶」的訊息。卻其實,要在市場上找幾隻現成的「Jackpot股」,何難之有?從【附表】可見,2008至2013年,四隻沒有盈利、股價對銷售比率極高的生科和新能源股,俱有過一年狂升5倍至15倍的紀錄。「專家」拿這些已「派彩」的「彩票股」誘使投資者訂閱其服務,白付訂費事小,在最不適當的時候買入成手「蟹貨」事大。

換個形式接火棒

數據顯示,若把估值最昂貴(相對盈利/銷售,市場期望最高)的10%股票視作「彩票股」,以美國上市公司為準,自1963年以來年均跑輸標普500指數8.5個百分點。與上述四個「Jackpot股」例子相反,假設閣下自1963年以來每年買入一籃子「彩票股」,隨後一年多達六成股份變「蟹貨」;餘下四成雖錄得升幅,惟1963年至今投資組合整體年均回報僅1.5%,遠遜標普500指數同期每年約10%的升幅。

理性投資者對估值瘋狂的板塊自然敬而遠之,但人在江湖身不由己,即使閣下聽從畢非德忠告,被動地買入標普500指數基金,亦難保不跟隨心存僥幸者一起「追夢」,理由是標普500按市值定權重,動力十足的強勢股佔比自動上調,個市癲起上來,閣下換個形式接了火棒,可能也懵然不知。


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Thursday, August 28, 2014

黃金股票 歡喜冤家

2014年5月28日
比老林文集



5月27日,周二。金價年初一度回勇,金礦股跑贏大市。好景不常,盎斯金3月中見1380美元後乏力再上;不進則退,過去兩個月回落7%。炒家「講金不講心」,美國商品期貨交易委員會(CFTC)統計顯示,對沖基金最近二個月黃金淨長倉減少三分一。

炒家最忌坐「死錢」,討不了好便離場。「大媽」那邊亦靜了下來,內地散客搶購黃金,近期鮮有聽聞。一句話,市場對黃金的興趣迅速轉淡。

購買力定輸贏

畢非德喜股惡金,人盡皆知。然而,世上若只有兩種投資可供選擇,非股即金,「股神」又會以什麼方法游說天下人「棄暗投明」?答案清楚寫在巴郡2012年致股東函內。畢非德於信中非但貶金,且對債券、銀行存款以至按揭產品等以貨幣為單位的投資「一網打盡」,警告投資者不要被表面看來安全可靠的資產迷惑,對持有相關項目可能招致的購買力損失視而不見。換句話說,一切立足於貨幣的投資工具都有可能因回報抵銷不了通脹而令持有人長遠吃虧;所謂投資,就是把購買力暫時轉移旁人,以換取日後更強大的購買力。畢非德對通脹足以摧毀固定收益投資工具的購買力念茲在茲,從他於2012年致股東函中揚言:「債券應附以警告標語」(bonds should come with a warning label),不已窺一斑而知全豹?

除了對投資的基本立場,2012年致股東函所以特別值得一讀,還因「股神」借金論股妙語如珠。《信報》讀者對這個比喻想必耳熟能詳,惟鑑古足以知今,重溫一遍何妨之有?


黃金何價?

畢非德云:假如把全球17萬公噸黃金鑄成一塊,一個每邊68呎的巨型立方體便呈現眼前,足有棒球場般大小。以每盎斯1750美元(2012年2月金價)計算,這個東西約值9.6萬億美元。9.6萬億美元可以買到什麼?答案是:全美合共4億畝農地,年產2000億美元,另加16間埃克森美孚。一口氣買下全國農地和16家石油巨企,9.6萬億美元仍剩1萬億,不少好東西還等着你買。農地、油企可以不斷生產、派息,而那個由17萬公噸黃金鑄成的巨型立方體,一百年後非但尺碼不會變大,生產生息更不知從何說起。股金之間,投資者該如何選擇,答案不已寫在牆上?

「金甲蟲」聽了畢非德這番話,當然不以為然,但撇開黃金是否一無是處不談,「股神」妙論實有許多演繹方法,不同時期的金股市值,足以得出南轅北轍的結論。

畢非德的比喻立足於金價和埃克森美孚2012年初市值,金價其時離半年前創出的歷史高位不遠,市場追捧黃金熱情未減。可是,跟1980年初金價上次見頂相比,黃金狂態顯然遠遠不如。從【圖1】可見,1980年2月,全球黃金「鑄成一塊」(以當時數量計,總值約2.3萬億美元),足夠買入56間其時市值首屈一指(410億美元)的IBM。

二十年後,金股形勢一百八十度逆轉,科網狂潮到達沸點,黃金則被貶作「爛銅」。2000年3月,全球股王非微軟莫屬,當時世界所有黃金加起來約值1.2萬億美元,微軟市值為5350億美元。換句話說,那個由黃金鑄成的巨型立方體,2000年初只能買到2間微軟!


十年河東十年河西


股市代代出霸主,埃克森、IBM、通用電氣(GE)、微軟,不同時期各領風騷。今時今日,坐在一哥寶座上的乃蘋果公司。老闆,蘋果點賣?全球黃金加在一起,今天約值7.1萬億美元,蘋果最新市值5290億美元。那等於說,拿全世界的黃金來交換,13間蘋果有找。


以企業比喻股金相對價值,既立體又好玩;以整體股市衡量,金與股怎秤?從【圖2】可見,1980年初,全球黃金相當於美股總市值2倍(200%)以上。2000年初,世界所有黃金加在一起,僅相當於美股總市值的7%!


從兩者於極端時期的相對表現可見,股與金瘋起上來不相伯仲。十年河東十年河西,金與股就好比一對歡喜冤家,畢非德妙論的參考價值,四字記之曰:因時而異。




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Wednesday, August 27, 2014

疯狂的货币政策:一个看多黄金白银的绝佳理由

金融媒体愿意忽略一个问题,但不得不说多年来美联储的“货币政策”非常的鲁莽。下面的图表公众永远不会在CNBC或是其他媒体中看到,但了解目前美联储和华尔街带给世界的威胁至关重要。
疯狂的货币政策:一个看多黄金白银的绝佳理由
美国联邦公开市场委员将此称为“货币政策”,但这更像是将伪造货币合法化。不幸的是,多年来,婴儿潮一代(和他们的孩子)在即期消费中寻求乐趣。这不得不归咎于美联储在2008年12月通过降低联邦基金利率至接近于0%,摧毁了他们的储蓄的动机。此利率永远不会提高(尽管美联储言之凿凿)没有攀升的预算赤字,经济过程中下沉。几十年来美国充分利用银行系统慷慨的债务举债经营,而现在有太多的人沉迷于廉价信贷和绝无仅有远离破产的薪水,雇主也是一样。
作为消费者金融市场目前发现自己处于危险的境地,出于同样的原因,他们的估值被央行的“政策”支持。在接下来的几个月里耶伦可能打算减少量化宽松到零,但是股票和债券市场早就应该开始修正,她会“货币化”国债再次支持金融“资产”的估价。耶伦是这一代的一个典型经济学家,当货币政策的问题来临,她也由喜转忧。我们看不到任何方式对美联储放松(或停止扩大)资产负债表。
然而美联储的“货币政策”完全失控了。美国国债货币化的数量自1987年美联储主席艾伦格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)以来明显增加一发不可收拾,如同下表。现在的长期国债投资组合超过1987年8月整个美国国家债务的77%。
疯狂的货币政策:一个看多黄金白银的绝佳理由
但货币化美国国债并没有被美国人完全垄断。《巴伦周刊》也公布了联邦储备系统通过外国中央银行(下图中蓝线表示)持有美元价值美国国债持有的美元价值,数十年来已经有庞大的美国国债购买者。一旦购买,这些购买央行就会开始央行经常采取的动作,这就是“注入流动性”到他们的银行系统,提高其创造信贷(债务)的能力。然而,外国央行显然在2011年达到了他们的极限,他们不在愿意将美国国债货币化,从那时起,美联储(红线)开始实施宽松的政策。
疯狂的货币政策:一个看多黄金白银的绝佳理由
接下来从其他国家央行的数据上来看是熊市视角(蓝色线)。在2012年11月,有一个美国国债的大幅(11.4%)减少,但是这种下降趋势并不是什么新闻。因为在1998年9月(由于亚洲金融[-1.73%]危机引起的)减少高达15%。当时的美联储主席艾伦格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)安抚国会并通过媒体向公众表示一切在控制之中。在亚洲这次恐慌中(1997年3月- 1998年9月)格林斯潘保持市场控制。10年期美国公债收益率从6.70%下降至4.90%,而黄金的价格从339美元降至290美元。
疯狂的货币政策:一个看多黄金白银的绝佳理由
在下面的图表中,我们看到许多2014年6月持有美国国债的不同国家。注意,这个数据来自美国财政部(不是美联储)。我将美联储的长期债券列入比较但美联储的长期债券不包括在总数中。我假设财政部的数据包括所有长期债券持有者在一个特定国家,而不仅仅是他们的央行。
中国和日本(列表中的3和4)持有超过一万亿美元的长期国债,但结美联储的投资组合持有只有60%。出于好奇我查看了再2008年5月这些央行持有多少美元,得到以下数据:
中国: $506
日本: $575
美联储: $478
六年的差异非常大,足以构成一次信贷危机。
德国(# 21)只持有680亿美元的山姆大叔的借据。德国是世界上最大的经济体之一,但像爱尔兰这样的国家(# 16)持有更多的美国长期债券。
疯狂的货币政策:一个看多黄金白银的绝佳理由
美国国债市场的一个最常的主题应该是主要债券持有人(如中国上图的# 3)决定出售其债券,他们可能引发经济厄运。让我们看看这个相同的通过百分比分类的数据Max Val列表(下图)。迄今最大的卖家(百分比的基础上)英国(# 1)清算超过一半的长期国库券投资组合。俄罗斯(# 3)出售35%的国债。但到目前为止,最新的数据没有一个美国国债的主要持有者清算很大比例的投资组合。注意合计总数(# 36)是在一个新的历史新高。
疯狂的货币政策:一个看多黄金白银的绝佳理由
在未来中国(# 18)或许会出售大部分的美国长期债券。大幅抛售美国国债会伤害的不仅仅是联邦政府。
目前美国银行持有58%的美国国债。这些银行绝对不是故意要开始一个长期国库券市场的恐慌。但目前58%的美国国债市场,其目前的规模相当于2008年奥巴马首次当选时的整个美国国债规模,剩下的42%在奥巴马政权的第一个六年创建(下图)。
疯狂的货币政策:一个看多黄金白银的绝佳理由
情况也并不总是这样。在下面的表中我们可以看到,在1995年5月私人持有者持有美国国债市场的83%。
疯狂的货币政策:一个看多黄金白银的绝佳理由
所谓的“国债”只是部分联邦政府的债务在债券市场交易。在未来几十年美国财政部即将迎来大约高达150万亿美元的无资金准备的债务。华盛顿未来一天的危机将试图通过收回这些无资金准备的债务与通货膨胀推迟。
如果耶伦真的打算缩减量化宽松到零,并且金融市场再次开始缩紧通货像在2008 - 09年,在股市下跌30%或更多美联储的政治压力将难以抵抗。没有美联储在股票和债券市场直接干预,股票和债券的估值将会下降到难以想象的低水平。
疯狂的货币政策:一个看多黄金白银的绝佳理由
有趣的是:自1995年5月以来,美国国债增加了12.75万亿美元,但长期国库券收益率降至自20世纪50年代以来从未见过的水平。
随着在这荒唐的20年美国国债的增长,债券收益率怎么可能降至1953年以来从未见过的水平?这其实并不难,因为美联储有无限的资金来执行他们的低利率政策。所以,他们不在乎他们必须付多少美国长期债券,或者他们有多少美元的长期国库券不得不去购买,如果“政策”规定,债券收益率必须下降。
凯恩斯主义经济学家仍占主导联邦公开市场委员会,他们相信低利率能治愈所有的市场问题,所以预计当前过低的长期债券收益率。但凯恩斯主义者与美国政府步调一致。就像自苏联布尔什维克第一次国有化医保系统,左翼进步人士最终消亡,预计美国当前在股票和债券牛市也将被证明。那么如果这些人看空金银,也许对我们而言这是一个看多金银的很好的理由。(本文来自龙讯财经投稿
http://finance.ifeng.com/a/20140826/13000970_0.shtml

The TRUTH about China’s Massive Gold Hoard


By Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst
I don’t want to say that mainstream analysts are stupid when it comes to China’s gold habits, but I did look up how to say that word in Chinese…
One report claims, for example, that gold demand in China is down because the yuan has fallen and made the metal more expensive in the country. Sounds reasonable, and it has a grain of truth to it. But as you’ll see below, it completely misses the bigger picture, because it overlooks a major development with how the country now imports precious metals.
I’ve seen so many misleading headlines over the last couple months that I thought it time to correct some of the misconceptions. I’ll let you decide if mainstream North American analysts are stupid or not.
The basis for the misunderstanding starts with the fact that the Chinese think differently about gold. They view gold in the context of its role throughout history and dismiss the Western economist who arrogantly declares it an outdated relic. They buy in preparation for a new monetary order—not as a trade they hope earns them a profit.
Combine gold’s historical role with current events, and we would all do well to view our holdings in a slightly more “Chinese” light, one that will give us a more accurate indication of whether we have enough, of what purpose it will actually serve in our portfolio, and maybe even when we should sell (or not).
The horizon is full of flashing indicators that signal the Chinese view of gold is more prudent for what lies ahead. Gold will be less about “making money” and more about preparing for a new international monetary system that will come with historic consequences to our way of life.
With that context in mind, let’s contrast some recent Western headlines with what’s really happening on the ground in China. Consider the big picture message behind these developments and see how well your portfolio is geared for a “Chinese” future…
Gold Demand in China Is Falling
This headline comes from mainstream claims that China is buying less gold this year than last. The International Business Times cites a 30% drop in demand during the “Golden Week” holiday period in May. Many articles point to lower net imports through Hong Kong in the second quarter of the year. “The buying frenzy, triggered by a price slump last April, has not been repeated this year,” reports Kitco.
However, these articles overlook the fact that the Chinese government now accepts gold imports directly into Beijing.
In other words, some of the gold that normally went through Hong Kong is instead shipped to the capital. Bypassing the normal trade routes means these shipments are essentially done in secret. This makes the Western headline misleading at best, and at worst could lead investors to make incorrect decisions about gold’s future.
China may have made this move specifically so its import figures can’t be tracked. It allows Beijing to continue accumulating physical gold without the rest of us knowing the amounts. This move doesn’t imply demand is falling—just the opposite.
And don’t forget that China is already the largest gold producer in the world. It is now reported to have the second largest in-ground gold resource in the world. China does not export gold in any meaningful amount. So even if it were true that recorded imports are falling, it would not necessarily mean that Chinese demand has fallen, nor that China has stopped accumulating gold.
China Didn’t Announce an Increase in Reserves as Expected
A number of analysts (and gold bugs) expected China to announce an update on their gold reserves in April. That’s because it’s widely believed China reports every five years, and the last report was in April 2009. This is not only inaccurate, it misses a crucial point.
First, Beijing publicly reported their gold reserve amounts in the following years:
  • 500 tonnes at the end of 2001
  • 600 tonnes at the end of 2002
  • 1,054 tonnes in April 2009.
Prior to this, China didn’t report any change for over 20 years; it reported 395 tonnes from 1980 to 2001.
There is no five-year schedule. There is no schedule at all. They’ll report whenever they want, and—this is the crucial point—probably not until it is politically expedient to do so.
Depending on the amount, the news could be a major catalyst for the gold market. Why would the Chinese want to say anything that might drive gold prices upwards, if they are still buying?
Even with All Their Buying, China’s Gold Reserve Ratio Is Still Low
Almost every report you’ll read about gold reserves measures them in relation to their total reserves. The US, for example, has 73% of its reserves in gold, while China officially has just 1.3%. Even the World Gold Council reports it this way.
But this calculation is misleading. The US has minimal foreign currency reserves—and China has over $4 trillion. The denominators are vastly different.
A more practical measure is to compare gold reserves to GDP. This would tell us how much gold would be available to support the economy in the event of a global currency crisis, a major reason for having foreign reserves in the first place and something Chinese leaders are clearly preparing for.
The following table shows the top six holders of gold in GDP terms. (Eurozone countries are combined into one.) Notice what happens to China’s gold-to-GDP ratio when their holdings move from the last-reported 1,054-tonne figure to an estimated 4,500 tonnes (a reasonable figure based on import data).
CountryGold
(Tonnes)
Value US$ B
($1300 gold)
GDP US$ B
(2013)
Gold
Percent
of GDP
Eurozone*10,786.3$450.812,716.303.5%
US8,133.5$339.916,799.702.0%
China**4,500.0$188.19,181.382.0%
Russia1,068.4$44.72,118.012.1%
India557.7$23.31,870.651.2%
Japan765.2$32.04,901.530.7%
China1,054.1$44.19,181.380.5%
*including 503.2 tonnes held by ECB
**Projection
Sources: World Gold Council, IMF, Casey Research proprietary calculations

At 4,500 tonnes, the ratio shows China would be on par with the top gold holders in the world. In fact, they would hold more gold than every country except the US (assuming the US and EU have all the gold they say they have). This is probably a more realistic gauge of how they determine if they’re closing in on their goals.
This line of thinking assumes China’s leaders have a set goal for how much gold they want to accumulate, which may or may not be the case. My estimate of 4,500 tonnes of current gold reserves might be high, but it may also be much less than whatever may ultimately satisfy China’s ambitions. Sooner or later, though, they’ll tell us what they have, but as above, that will be when it works to China’s benefit.
The Gold Price Is Weak Because Chinese GDP Growth Is Slowing
Most mainstream analysts point to the slowing pace of China’s economic growth as one big reason the gold price hasn’t broken out of its trading range. China is the world’s largest gold consumer, so on the surface this would seem to make sense. But is there a direct connection between China’s GDP and the gold price?
Over the last six years, there has been a very slight inverse correlation (-0.07) between Chinese GDP and the gold price, meaning they act differently slightly more often than they act the same. Thus, the Western belief characterized above is inaccurate. The data signal that, if China’s economy were to slow, gold demand won’t necessarily decline.
The fact is that demand is projected to grow for reasons largely unrelated to whether their GDP ticks up or down. The World Gold Council estimates that China’s middle class is expected to grow by 200 million people, to 500 million, within six years. (The entire population of the US is only 316 million.) They thus project that private sector demand for gold will increase 25% by 2017, due to rising incomes, bigger savings accounts, and continued rapid urbanization. (170 cities now have over one million inhabitants.) Throw in China’s deep-seated cultural affinity for gold and a supportive government, and the overall trend for gold demand in China is up.
The Gold Price Is Determined at the Comex, Not in China
One lament from gold bugs is that the price of gold—regardless of how much people pay for physical metal around the world—is largely a function of what happens at the Comex in New York.
One reason this is true is that the West trades in gold derivatives, while the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) primarily trades in physical metal. The Comex can thus have an outsized impact on the price, compared to the amount of metal physically changing hands. Further, volume at the SGE is thin, compared to the Comex.
But a shift is underway…
In May, China approached foreign bullion banks and gold producers to participate in a global gold exchange in Shanghai, because as one analyst put it, “The world’s top producer and importer of the metal seeks greater influence over pricing.”
The invited bullion banks include HSBC, Standard Bank, Standard Chartered, Bank of Nova Scotia, and the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ). They’ve also asked producing companies, foreign institutions, and private investors to participate.
The global trading platform was launched in the city’s “pilot free-trade zone,” which could eventually challenge the dominance of New York and London.
This is not a proposal; it is already underway.
Further, the enormous amount of bullion China continues to buy reduces trading volume in North America. The Chinese don’t sell, so that metal won’t come back into the market anytime soon, if ever. This concern has already been publicly voiced by some on Wall Street, which gives you an idea of how real this trend is.
There are other related events, but the point is that going forward, China will have increasing sway over the gold price (as will other countries: the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange is to begin a spot gold contract within three months).
And that’s a good thing, in our view.
Don’t Be Ridiculous; the US Dollar Isn’t Going to Collapse
In spite of all the warning signs, the US dollar is still the backbone of global trading. “It’s the go-to currency everywhere in the world,” say government economists. When a gold bug (or anyone else) claims the dollar is doomed, they laugh.
But who will get the last laugh?
You may have read about the historic energy deal recently made between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Over the next 30 years, about $400 billion of natural gas from Siberia will be exported to China. Roughly 25% of China’s energy needs will be met by 2018 from this one deal. The construction project will be one of the largest in the world. The contract allows for further increases, and it opens Russian access to other Asian countries as well. This is big.
The twist is that transactions will not be in US dollars, but in yuan and rubles. This is a serious blow to the petrodollar.
While this is a major geopolitical shift, it is part of a larger trend already in motion:
  • President Jinping proposed a brand-new security system at the recent Asian Cooperation Conference that is to include all of Asia, along with Russia and Iran, and exclude the US and EU.
  • Gazprom has signed agreements with consumers to switch from dollars to euros for payments. The head of the company said that nine of ten consumers have agreed to switch to euros.
  • Putin told foreign journalists at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that “China and Russia will consider further steps to shift to the use of national currencies in bilateral transactions.” In fact,a yuan-ruble swap facility that excludes the greenback has already been set up.
  • Beijing and Moscow have created a joint ratings agency and are now “ready for transactions… in rubles and yuan,” said the Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. Many Russian companies have already switched contracts to yuan, partly to escape Western sanctions.
  • Beijing already has in place numerous agreements with major trading partners, such as Brazil and the Eurozone, that bypass the dollar.
  • Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (the BRICS countries) announced last week that they are “seeking alternatives to the existing world order.” The five countries unveiled a $100 billion fund to fight financial crises, their version of the IMF. They will also launch a World Bank alternative, a new bank that will make loans for infrastructure projects across the developing world.
You don’t need a crystal ball to see the future for the US dollar; the trend is clearly moving against it. An increasing amount of global trade will be done in other currencies, including the yuan, which will steadily weaken the demand for dollars.
The shift will be chaotic at times. Transitions this big come with complications, and not one of them will be good for the dollar. And there will be consequences for every dollar-based investment. US-dollar holders can only hope this process will be gradual. If it happens suddenly, all US-dollar based assets will suffer catastrophic consequences. In his new book, The Death of Money, Jim Rickards says he believes this is exactly what will happen.
The clearest result for all US citizens will be high inflation, perhaps at runaway levels—and much higher gold prices.
Gold Is More Important than a Profit Statement
Only a deflationary bust could keep the gold price from going higher at some point. That is still entirely possible, yet even in that scenario, gold could “win” as most other assets crash. Otherwise, I’m convinced a mid-four-figure price of gold is in the cards.
But remember: It’s not about the price. It’s about the role gold will serve protecting wealth during a major currency upheaval that will severely impact everyone’s finances, investments, and standard of living.
Most advisors who look out to the horizon and see the same future China sees believe you should hold 20% of your investable assets in physical gold bullion. I agree. Anything less will probably not provide the kind of asset and lifestyle protection you’ll need.
In the meantime, don’t worry about the gold price. China’s got your back.
http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/the-truth-about-chinas-massive-gold-hoard

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

複雜產品抬頭 金融危機重演?

2014年8月14日

8月13日,周三。金融市場近日一大熱話,乃資金從垃圾債市瘋撤。高盛以「六西格瑪事件」(6-sigma event,即六標準差)來形容撤資勢頭之猛。卻其實,在超低息環境將變未變下,異乎尋常的資金流動風險無處不在,垃圾債不過是一次「預演」。

美國高息(垃圾)債互惠基金上周據報錄得71億美元資金淨流出,非但金額歷來最高,經資產規模調整後,更成為高盛口中的「六西格瑪事件」。這種情況發生的機率,跟擲毫連開29次「公」、擲骰連開11鋪「6」一樣低,大概為五百萬分之一。
完美風暴?
沒有入,何來出?財政司司長曾俊華和金管局總裁陳德霖相繼發表網文,一個提及「完美風暴」,一個警告熱錢急撤,着眼點都是超寬鬆環境一旦有變,資金大舉撤離觸發的亂局。
不管垃圾債還是來去無蹤的熱錢,若非「穩陣」資產回報形同雞肋、「平錢」任借刺激風險胃納,市場上一有風吹草動,資金退出也絕不會衍生出「黑天鵝事件」。超低息維持愈久,尋息意欲牽涉的市場便愈多,金融危機重演的風險亦愈大。
《華爾街日報》8月10日於一篇題為《息旱》(Yield Drought)的文章中指出,超寬鬆貨幣政策促使投資者為「息」而甘於承受高風險,買入低評級或年期較長債券是其中一途,但還有一個可能性,就是押注複雜的信貸結構性產品。眾所周知,抵押債務證券(CDO)等信貸衍生工具,乃觸發金融海嘯的罪魁禍首之一,近年發行量雖大減,但隨着「好息之徒」與日俱增,投行推出信貸衍生工具「滿足需求」的誘因亦日甚於日。
《華日》報道,花旗集團承認,與信貸違約掉期(CDS)指數掛鈎、債務評級和回報按不同「檔次」(tranches)劃分並「斬件出售」的金融產品,近日交投激增。參與買賣的雖以對沖基金為主,惟愈來愈多需要在回報上達標的專業投資者,對這類產品興趣大增。
另一例子是,高盛將於9月推出一種名為Fixed Income Global Structured Covered Obligations的結構性產品。老實說,這種葫蘆裏不知賣什麼藥的東西,譯為中文只會令人更加摸不着頭腦。據《華日》介紹,產品背後的資產,某段時間可以絕大部分為住宅按揭抵押證券,某段時間可以是主權債,其他時間可以是企業債券,名副其實一時一樣。投資者究竟買了什麼,像風一般難以捉摸。
除了結構複雜外,標準普爾已給予高盛這種新產品AAA信貸評級。這一切,不是盡皆似曾相識嗎?
CoCo債的風險
複雜金融產品再度抬頭有迹可尋,惟規模是否足以跟海嘯前相提並論,老畢頗有懷疑。不過,有一種集股債特色於一身、銀行為補充資本而發行的金融工具,卻非常值得留意。老畢所說的乃「應急可轉債」(contingent convertible bonds,俗稱CoCo bonds)。CoCo債有密切注意價值,原因有三:
一、由前香港證監會行政總裁韋奕禮(Martin Wheatley)「打骰」的英國金融行為監管局(FCA),近日針對CoCo債發出警告,指當局正在採取行動限制這種「高風險且極度複雜」的產品於零售層面發售。FCA的行動,反證了英國散戶可較易接觸到CoCo債;也就是說,一旦出亂子,受影響的不限於機構和專業投資者。
二、滙控(00005)以金融危機發生時多一層「防護罩」為理由,於今年5月股東大會尋求股東授權發行CoCo債,且已獲港交所(00388)允許。
三、葡萄牙必利勝銀行(BES)7月因自身問題和市況不利,取消發行CoCo債的計劃。然而,假設發債順利進行,換股機制一經觸發,投資者恐怕損失慘重。CoCo債涉及的風險,從必利勝的例子中表露無遺。
在大部分情況下CoCo債於銀行資本充足比率降至某一最低要求時,將按條款強制轉化為普通股,以便吸收損失補充資本。銀行所以樂於透過這種方法集資,一則由於發行新股必然攤薄現有股東權益;二則經濟不景呆壞賬激增時,次級債(subordinated debt)無法「以債抵資」,不可能滿足補充資本的迫切需要。CoCo債集股債元素於一身,順風順水時是「債」,現有股東權益不會遭攤薄;逆境降臨時卻是「股」。經此一「轉」,資本流失問題迎刃而解。從銀行立場出發,CoCo債確是一舉兩得的如意算盤。
然而,熟悉期權操作者一眼便能看出,CoCo債乃一種內含認沽期權短倉(short put options)的混合型債務工具,雙方協議的特定事件一旦發生,債券投資者必須按指定條款換股,道理跟認沽期權售方於正股股價跌穿行使價時接貨一樣。
利大本無歸
在大圍環境好、銀行充足資本比率不受威脅時,CoCo債持有人穩賺6至9厘的年息;一旦環境逆轉,銀行資本水平遠低於最起碼的要求,強制性轉債為股的結果,是投資者被迫接下成手「蟹貨」。
從必利勝的例子可見,該行一級核心資本充足比率目前僅5%,必利勝次級債6月時仍高於面值,如今已跌至只相當於面值14.9%【圖】!必利勝股票基本上已跟「廢紙」無異,假如按計劃發行CoCo債,投資者後果可想而知。

跟超富揀股有「數」?

2014年8月9日

8月8日,周五。許多投資者發夢也想着享有畢非德、索羅斯、David Einhorn一樣的投資回報。自認揀股一絕的股民,索性封自己為港版股神、炒聖。
索羅斯、畢非德既為投資世界「萬人迷」,戰績輝煌不言而喻。然而,那是根據數十年回報得出的結論。不管怎麼「神」,在挫折面前無人能免疫,一兩年甚至三四年跑輸大市,沒什麼值得大驚小怪。
研究機構Bespoke跟畢非德「算過賬」,發現巴郡15大持股連同美銀認股證,今年表現明顯遜於標普500指數。早在4月,Bespoke已做過相同調查,於巴郡持股與標普500之間作出對比,發現首四個月巴郡輕微落後0.8個百分點。
本月再作檢討,發現畢非德愛股不僅未能追回失地,距離且進一步擴大,2014年迄今跑輸2.85個百分點,連股息總回報則落後2.86個百分點。以過去12個月為準,巴郡15大持股輸得更遠,不計股息落後6.27個百分點,連股息總回報輸6.39個百分點【表】。
專攻富豪愛股
仔細點看,畢非德愛股表現榮辱互見,比重最高的富國銀行(Wells Fargo)、DirecTV、穆迪、DaVita HealthCare、ConocoPhillips和紐約梅倫銀行,年初以來皆錄得雙位數升幅。然而,通用汽車、可口可樂、沃爾瑪、美國運通、寶潔以至埃克森等大藍籌,表現卻令人失望;升跌相抵,巴郡15大持股明顯跑輸標指。
老畢引述「股神」愛股表現,非為比而比。正如前述,任何投資者皆不可能年年贏季季勝。摘錄Bespoke的統計,只因美國資產管理公司Direxion 8月1日推出一隻名為iBillionaire Index ETF的交易所買賣基金(上市代號IBLN)。顧名思義,這隻基金的賣點是仿效超富投資者選股,以30隻為限,組成一個指數,ETF組合正是立足於此。
投資意念泉源
按照Direxion的介紹,iBillionaire指數僅包括標普500成分股,根據投資富豪向美國證監提呈的13F最新紀錄「擇優而買」。
靠投資揚名的超級富豪屈指可數,iBillionaire的仿效對象,離不開畢非德、索羅斯、David Einhorn以至Bill Ackman等舉世知名的基金經理。Direxion如何在他們之中權衡輕重、於投資風格上有沒有特別偏好,老畢無法肯定。然而,Direxion聲稱,自去年10月面世以來,iBillionaire上升16%,勝於標普500同期11.8%的回報。
按照第三方進行的回溯測試,iBillionaire過去八年回報約雙倍於標普500。
基金公司推介新產品,自然賣花讚花香,以今天ETF之五花八門,賣點跟噱頭足以畫上等號。
可是,老畢對仿效知名投資者持股的「策略」抱開放態度,非因盲目相信「大師」,而是他們的愛股不難成為個人買賣的靈感來源。你不一定要購入相關ETF,但不妨從基金追蹤的股票發掘投資意念。
老畢經常懷疑,基金經理動輒跑輸大市,到底是他們真的那麼不濟,還是過度分散弄巧成拙。
換句話說,出色的揀股人不一定是稱職的資產管理者。研究發現,持有20隻股票足以享受91%來自分散投資的好處;持股多於20隻,為組合帶來的額外效益微乎其微。基金大都迷信分散投資,持股100隻以上者比比皆是,對回報有害無益。
切勿走火入魔
不過,找靈感歸找靈感,千萬別走火入魔,像Bill Ackman死咬康寶萊(Herbalife)那樣,迫人唔死反把自己推向牆角,到頭來全無退路。投資不過求財,一旦牽涉個人榮辱為啖氣,那便誰都幫你唔到了。

Monday, August 25, 2014

A Chinese Gold Standard?



LONDON — While the 70th anniversary of D-Day last month received a lot of attention, another event, in July 1944 — the Bretton Woods conference, named for the mountain resort in New Hampshire where it was held — was perhaps even more significant in shaping the modern world. It not only led to the creation of what are now the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, but it also confirmed the central position of the United States dollar in the international monetary system.


Why does this matter for us now? Just as America displaced Britain as the world’s pre-eminent economic power in the interwar period, so, too, the large debts and fiscal pressures confronting the West, and the rise of China and other economic powers, challenge us to think about the future of finance.


For most of the 19th century the British pound had been the world’s “reserve currency,” the currency in which trade and finance were denominated. “As sound as a pound” became a widely used expression. The pound was pegged to gold at a fixed rate of just under £4 per ounce.


At the outbreak of World War I, Britain abandoned the gold standard. You could no longer exchange pounds for gold. The gold standard was reintroduced in 1925, but this, as John Maynard Keynes observed, proved to be an economic mistake.


British prices and, more crucially, wages, would have to be forced down by 10 percent to maintain the competitiveness of British exports. As American agricultural and industrial exports soared in the 1920s and 1930s, the dollar effectively replaced the pound. It was American bankers who helped out the financially strapped Weimar Republic in the 1920s. The British, as exporters of capital, were a diminished force.


By the time of Bretton Woods, the United States held roughly 60 percent of the world’s gold supply. “Think of the gold in Fort Knox,” America’s chief negotiator at Bretton Woods, Harry Dexter White, said. “That is why we are in a powerful position.” He added, “We have the wherewithal to buy any currency we want.”


Bretton Woods fixed the dollar price of gold at $35 per ounce, and all the other major currencies — the pound, the franc, the mark, the yen — were subsequently pegged to the dollar, even though they could not be exchanged directly for gold. This system lasted until 1971. By then, America was under the financial strain of the Vietnam War and Lyndon B. Johnson’s Great Society. With mounting deficits and an adverse balance of trade, America struggled to maintain gold convertibility at the old rate of $35 an ounce. So President Richard M. Nixon abandoned the fixed dollar price of gold established at Bretton Woods (over the objections of the Federal Reserve chairman, Arthur F. Burns).


International critics said that the United States, by ending the dollar link to gold, was turning its back on its responsibilities as the guarantor of the international monetary system. Over the decades, the situation has gotten worse. The United States is $17.6 trillion in debt owed to the public, and large trade deficits are the norm. Yet there is no scope for revisiting the international monetary system, despite great dissatisfaction by countries like China and the Persian Gulf states, which hold large foreign currency reserves. Americans themselves question the security of the dollar when their country faces such large trade and budget deficits.




China’s nearly $4 trillion in reserves — accumulated through its mercantilist trade policies — give it plenty of ammunition to claim leadership in the creation of a new monetary order. The Chinese, however, are most unlikely to bid for monetary hegemony in the near future. For the past 25 years they have pursued a policy of aggressive export growth to drive their economy. China successively devalued its currency, from 1.50 renminbi to the dollar in 1980, to 8.72 in 1994. (Today the renminbi trades at 6.20 to the dollar, which the United States still considers artificially low.)


Could China someday peg its currency to gold, as Britain did in 1821? China has the reserves to do this, and it could have the political will, if the dollar proved to be unreliable as a store of value in the future.


Of course, Britain’s earlier adoption of the gold standard, in 1821, worsened a sharp deflationary period, during which, according to one calculation, consumer prices fell nearly 50 percent, between 1818 and 1822.


Nevertheless, to its supporters the gold standard ensured British fiscal and monetary dominance during the rest of the 19th century. As the British historian A.J.P. Taylor observed, 19th-century Britons believed that “a country could not flourish without a balanced budget and a gold currency.” Since Keynes, the West has tried to deny this proposition, with our reliance on deficit spending and “fiat” money, backed mainly by the expectation that a government will not default on its debts.


China is not as indebted as the West, but it is looking to “rebalance” its economy by raising demand by consumers, who want to enjoy the standard of living enjoyed across the Western world. Since 2010, the renminbi has appreciated 14 percent without drastically hurting Chinese exports.


Having expanded its manufacturing base and captured international markets, China may well find a world hooked on its products. It could eventually — in, say, 20 years — peg the renminbi to gold, considering it preferable to the dollar as a store of value, because of its permanence and longevity. With a balanced budget and a gold-backed currency, China’s economy could be even more formidable than it is today. Such a move would truly mark its return as the “Middle Kingdom.” Hard as it may be to contemplate today, this scenario would, in many ways, be a more secure basis for an international monetary regime system than the system of floating exchange rates that Nixon inadvertently created in 1971, one that forever overturned the Bretton Woods order.


Kwasi Kwarteng, a Conservative member of Parliament, is the author of “War and Gold: A Five-Hundred-Year History of Empires, Adventures and Debt.”


http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/25/opinion/a-chinese-gold-standard-renminbi.html?_r=0

忘記「自由」 勢遭奴役

2014年7月16日

忘記「自由」 勢遭奴役

道指由20093月的低位6470點上升至20147月的17088點,升幅可觀,人人都知道「buy low and sell high, you can make a ton of money!」美股經過64個月上升,後市又如何?是否仍然看好?I have no idea,相信亦沒有一位專家真正睇得通。
環球性金融海嘯後,2008年底,全球央行普遍採取不同程度的寬鬆貨幣政策以應對危機。不過,2014年開始,各國央行態度已不一致,例如紐西蘭央行開始加息,還有馬來西亞、英倫銀行亦開始收緊銀根;美國聯儲局量寬(QE)政策將於今年10月結束;反之,歐洲央行和日本央行繼續寬鬆政策。至於中國人行,7月初宣布適度寬鬆以保持流動性、優化融資和信貸結構,繼續深化金融體制改革。
道指由20093月的6470點上升至2011512876點,然後下調至201110月的10404點,再升至今年714日的17088點,理論上已完成「N」形走勢,美股還能「牛」多久?6月美股回購只有232億美元,是最近18個月內最少。
20141月至今金價上升9%,可惜未能引發一浪高於一浪的訊號,阻力位在1434美元;如能打破,金價才可看高一線,不然只是從2011年的1920美元回落到2013年的1180美元後的一次反彈(反彈前跌幅三分一)。我老曹相信在金價見1434美元前聯儲局已採取行動。聯儲局計劃在2015年及2016年內把利率提升至2.5厘(即上調2厘)相信已可遏抑通脹率不致惡化。2004年第一次加息,20075月美國房地產開始回落,這一次又如何?大家不要忘記2002年底美股開始上升只維持了5年半,這次由20093月到今年71417088點已是第64個月上升,早已超過20022007年那次。
中資湧入 撐美樓市
2007年起,美國戰後出生嬰兒步入退休期,開始把城市的居所出售,搬到鄉村居住,引發20075月起美國樓價回落;他們的下一代雖然已到適婚年齡,卻買不起上一代出售的物業,幸得中國同胞大量湧至,從2012年起成為支持美國樓價回升的動力之一。
1945年大戰結束後,美元利率由1厘上升至1980年最高見20厘,仍未能成功控制通脹,由1981年起至今的減息潮亦沒有刺激實體經濟好轉;反而是列根總統為美國經濟拆牆鬆綁,到19828月,美國經濟開始復蘇,動力來自TNT(電訊、資訊普及、互聯網革命)。上述行業並不需要大量投放資金,只需創意無限。到1990年波斯灣危機後,老布殊透過聯儲局又再干預市場。近期美國失業率下降是因為戰後嬰兒族步入退休期,20146月美國就業人數較2001年初還少400萬人;人均收入較2007年(扣除通脹)少4.4%。換言之,利率升降只能刺激股市及樓價(有時亦不行),對實體經濟反而有害無益(在高租金下,不少企業經營甚至較前困難)。2015年進入加息周期,相信只有股市及樓價受影響,除非利率高出CPI升幅2厘。
過去數據一再證明自由市場的好處,可惜面對短期困難及政治壓力,加上做官的人為了證明自己較自由市場聰明,極之喜歡干預。典型例子是1987年日本央行為阻止日圓升值帶來泡沫經濟,19897月起日本銀行大幅度加息刺破泡沫經濟,其後日本政府雖然一再推出「刺激經濟計劃」,25年後的今天,情況大家有目共睹。
大力扶貧 窮人反增
最令港人激氣的是,香港政府過去一直信奉自由市場經濟,198310月引入聯繫滙率、19849月中英聯合聲明草簽,引入每一財政年度只能賣地50公頃,19977月特區政府推出「八萬五」房屋政策,2002年底停止賣地,只推行「勾地表」制度(土地供應完全由地產發展商操控);加上近年立法規管最低工資,最近更有人重提租管,忘記「奴役之路由片片好心鋪成」。中國政府亦逐漸忘記自由市場的好處,例如200811月推出4萬億元人民幣刺激方案,2012年再加注2萬億元人民幣扶植國企。
1989年阻隔東西德的柏林圍牆倒下,令東歐及蘇聯變天,當年多少知名經濟學家為這些國家出謀獻策,25年過去了,結果如何?至於民主制度是否萬試萬靈,請看看東南亞各國、南美洲各國、東歐,甚至1990年前的印度、今天的泰國及菲律賓,經濟都是一塌糊塗。唐朝的李世民、漢朝的劉邦、清朝的康熙雍正乾隆,都為中國帶來盛世。換言之,只要採納開放市場政策令產品、服務四通八達,人民就發達;政府官員保持廉潔,國家便富強。只要政府尊重自由市場,「窮不會窮一世」;反之,政府大力扶貧,窮人數目卻大增。
710日葡萄牙大型銀行必利勝(Banco Espirito Santo)無法支付商業票據引發的危機,涉及資金約25.5億歐羅,理由是該公司透過借短(30天至60天平均只須1厘息)、放長(樓宇貸款卻收4厘息)賺取3厘息回報,一旦無法應付短期債券到期便出事。上述情況由19902007年在全球共出現過124次,2007年至今,歐豬五國(葡萄牙、意大利、愛爾蘭、希臘和西班牙,合稱PIIGS)平均每兩、三年便出現一次,最後都是由歐洲央行「出手」平定,相信這次亦不例外。今天,無論美國、歐洲、日本、中國,甚至香港,「干預」無處不在。
投資成功只需幾條簡單定律便可:一、從中長線角度看問題;二、用邏輯去分析事物;三、用常理去分辨是非;毋須學習短線炒賣方法,更加不用學高深而沒用的理論。成功的投資只需用最簡單、直接及常理分析已足夠。長期而言,好好分析經濟前景(論勢)、制訂策略(論戰),控制情緒,用理智去分析問題(論性)已足夠,「大氣候與小氣候不因人的主觀願望而改變」。
自從本港工業工序內移,本港低收入家庭實質工資(即扣除通脹率後)由1981年開始回落,到2014年,本港低收入家庭實質工資較1981年低20%;中產階級好一點,實質工資由1997年開始回落,2014年中產階級實質薪金較1997年低15%,上述情況令香港進入M形社會。來自OECD國家過去的數字證明,即使政府大力扶貧,結果並不能改變20/80現象,只會令情況進一步惡化。
1980年起,每次經濟衰退出現皆可令長期利率回落,但下一次經濟進入衰退期,利率不跌反升。在過去日子裏,下層社會及中產階級實質收入下降,已影響中小企的營業額。美國房屋售價亦由20075月開始回落,通縮壓力已在不少行業出現,更何況美國戰後出生嬰兒大部分已超過55歲,即度過高消費期,未來愈來愈多美國人進入65歲退休期,消費力大減。
在我老曹成長的時代,85%年輕人讀完書便需財政獨立,如果希望修讀碩士、博士,大部分年輕人都是半工讀完成,只有極少數到23歲仍依賴家庭提供財務協助。1980年開始,愈來愈多26歲或以上年輕人仍依賴家庭提供財政援助完成碩士或博士,到2000年,甚至30歲或以上仍與父母同住的「啃老一族」愈來愈多,部分父母甚至把自住的房子讓給子女(因為他們要結婚需要地方住),自己搬到較細小的房子或近郊地方居住。6歲以前的小孩要管、18歲以前的子女要教,孟母三遷、岳飛母親在岳飛背上刺字,都是對子女嚴加管教而非把最好的給孩子,子女日後的成就不是贏在起跑線而是循循善誘,怪獸父母是造成今天香港年輕一代種種問題的根源。6歲前的小孩不管好,18歲前的子女不教好,咁就一世!因為18歲後子女的性格、行為早已形成,江山易改,品性難移。
中興期終 步入衰落
在道指一再創新高環境下,港股自201011月恒指24989點開始一再出現小型黑天鵝,跌幅超過50%的股份數目多如恒河沙數。2012年港股亦進入二八分,只有20%股份在之前3年多時間仍在上升,80%股份不是大幅回落便是低位牛皮。根據康湼狄夫經濟循環周期,香港經濟早已完成30年上升期,亦完成10年中興期(20032013年),2014年起進入1015年回落期。在未來日子裏,即使那20%富有家庭亦面對資產價格回落而不再增加消費,香港GDP陷入低增長已十分肯定。
20032007年,美國信貸以年率9.5%上升,才令GDP年增長率達到4.5%2009年至今,美國信貸以年率超過10%速度增長,但GDP年增長平均只有2.2%,較上一次繁榮期減少一半。中國亦由過去GDP年增長率雙位數下降至7%,未來5年中國GDP增長率6%8%已成常態,5年後GDP增長率將進一步下降。香港又如何?聯滙制度、政治因素決定政府出售土地多少,自由市場制度漸失,干預結果只會帶來更多干預——奴役之路便是由片片好心鋪出來。
自由市場制度好處是令人人透過百駿競走、能者奪魁;干預結果產生官商勾結,令部分人富起來,M形社會出現,自1984年起,政府一再為地產商製造巨大財富的條件,才是今天民怨的根源。
過去我老曹一直相信,只要美國股市好,港股及A股都應向好,再次證明沒有深入分析及了解就沒有發言權。2008年美國次按危機後,美國、英國及歐洲等發達國因缺錢而令經濟下滑,因此,推出QE及寬鬆貨幣政策是對症下藥;反之,A股市場下跌理由是因為200710月前市盈率太高,港股跌是由於港股直通車謠傳不獲證實,兩地股市下跌原因不是缺錢。A股是監管不力,當中央政府推出4萬億元人民幣刺激經濟方案,資金只流向國企及房地產,其後更集中在房地產市場,形成最近3年道指上升33%、納指上升63%,同期A股指數卻下跌26%,恒指201011月至今回落逾10%,是否中資企業不行?答案是否定的,在納指上市的中資概念股金龍指數(HXC)由2001年至20146月底止上升超過500%,同期納指僅上升172%,誰說中資股不行?試看看新浪、網易、搜狐等,以至在港上市的騰訊(700)。至於國企,2009年起政府過分強調「國」而忽略「企」,形成由政策主導而非市場主導,換言之,200811月時中國經濟是「落錯藥」,今年第二季中國證監才認真起來,希望A股進入尋底期。
國退民進 股價即升
至於國企改革先行者如中石化(386),今年3月政府宣布引入民企協助石油零售業務,已令股價由年初的5.7元,升上7.58元(630日高位);即是說,只要中央政府減少要求,國企執行國家政策改為尊重市場,股價立即止跌回升。
同樣理由,香港政局發展,如中央政府減少強調「一國」尊重「兩制」,香港深層次矛盾便可紓緩下來。今年8月既是香港政改最黑暗的時刻,又有可能是柳暗花明又一村,一切由中央政府決定。
恒指由201110月的16170點,至今已形成一個上升三角形,上方阻力在24111點、支持位22000點,最終恒指是升穿24111點而上升,還是22000點失守而回落?只有讓時間來證明。
今年2月以來,我老曹經過6次化療,惡性腫瘤由最初12顆到今天只剩下1顆(這顆腫瘤亦由最初兩個拳頭咁大縮細至手指公咁細);7月底進行評估,可能須切除或做電療手術,太太又不准我老曹寫稿,要我老曹完全康復後才可以,因此,短期內又要同讀者講聲拜拜。後會有期。